Immuno-Epidemiological Model-Based Prediction of Further Covid-19 Epidemic Outbreaks Due to Immunity Waning

We develop a new data-driven immuno-epidemiological model with distributed infectivity, recovery and death rates determined from the epidemiological, clinical experimental data. Immunity in population is taken into account through time-dependent number of vaccinated people different numbers doses acquired immunity for recovered individuals. The validated available show that first time beginning pandemic COVID-19 some countries reached collective immunity. However, epidemic continues because emergence variant BA.2 larger escape or disease transmission rate than previous BA.l variant. Large outbreaks can be expected several months later due to waning. These restrained by an intensive booster vaccination.